With only a quarter left in 2023, you might be wondering when the big real estate bubble is going to burst, especially if you read the news, but the truth is, you may be waiting a lot longer. All the signs we're seeing point to a market that's actually pretty stable, albeit much different from the markets of 2020, 2021, and 2022.
We've scoured the recent stats and reports and are summing up the highlights here for you so you don't have to read everything.
From the MLS:
Home prices in the Mid-Atlantic region continue to rise even as the combination of high mortgage rates, low inventory, and the transition to a fall market subdues transactions
Buyers are still active and competition is still there, but inventory is slowly growing
Pending sales and closed sales are down overall
Although closed sales are down 19% from last year, the median sales price is up 4% which supports the claim that there is still high demand. You will see that the biggest change is the number of new listings, which is down 30% from 2022, and that makes sense if you recall how crazy the market was last year.
It's always interesting to look at the number of days that a listing is staying on the market. Years ago, it was pretty typical for a listing to take close to one month to sell. But today, it's likely that a listing will sell within just a few days. We used to tell our sellers that if, after 21 days on the market, they have not yet received an offer, the list price was too high. But it's been quite some time since we've had to have that conversation.
Let's see how the numbers look in some of our favorite zip codes:
21093
There are 55 active listings, 45 properties under contract, and there have been 38 closings in the past 30 days
Of the 55 active listings, 35 have been listed for less than 30 days, and 20 have been listed more than 30 days
Of the 45 properties under contract, 10 had price reductions
21030
There are 23 active listings, 27 properties under contract, and there have been 22 closings in the past 30 days
Of the 23 active listings, 11 have been listed for less than 30 days, and 12 have been listed more than 30 days
Of the 27 properties under contract, only one had a price reduction
21204
There are 22 active listings, 7 properties under contract, and there have been 11 closings in the past 30 days
Of the 22 active listings, 13 have been listed for less than 30 days, and 9 have been listed more than 30 days
Of the 7 properties under contract, only one had a price reduction
On the national level...
According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the housing recession is officially OVER. And here's more:
NAR predicts existing-home sales to fall 12.9% in 2023 compared to 2022, and then climb by 15.5% in 2024
National median existing-home prices are expected to remain mostly steady, likely ending this year just 0.4% down compared to 2022, reaching $384,900 for 2023
Home prices are then expected to rebound by 2.6% in 2024 to $395,000, NAR predicts
A few more interesting facts...
According to US News & World Report, the hottest housing markets in the US are:
Denver, Colorado
Durham-Chapel Hill, North Carolina
Raleigh, North Carolina
Charlotte, North Carolina
Cape Coral-Fort Meyers, Florida
From what we've seen personally, the market remains strong in our area: many listings are selling with multiple offers above asking price, days on market remains in single digits, and buyers are still very active. If you're concerned that it might not be the right time to buy or sell, please give us a call to chat. We can help you determine the right time to make your move, whether that's investing, selling your primary home, or purchasing a second or even third home.
Reach out to Claudia at claudia@theoharagroup.com.